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The U.S. economy ended 2023 with a bang, as growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter came in at 3.3%, easily dashing expectations on strong consumer spending and exports. Economists had predicted a gain of 2% for the quarter following the third quarter’s 4.9% increase, driven by strong consumer spending, rebuilding of inventories and a resilient labor market. Although 2023 outperformed, defying predictions of a recession even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a level not seen in four decades, most economists are forecasting growth slowing this year. The strong fourth quarter number is likely to cast doubt on whether the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as the market thinks. “Consumers will likely remain cautious with their spending as they confront ‘cost fatigue’ and less vibrant labor market conditions.

Persons: ”, Steve Rick, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jerome Powell, “, ” Daco Organizations: Federal Reserve, TruStage, “, Fed, Labor Department Locations: U.S, Ukraine

The U.S. economy is on a roll, expanding at a 4.9% annual clip in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. Analysts are looking for the overall index to show prices increased at a 3.4% annual rate and the core index at 3.7%, down from 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively. On Wednesday, Adobe Analytics issued its monthly measure of online prices showing they continue to fall, hitting a 41-month low in September. “Online prices fell for the majority of Adobe’s tracked categories (12 of 18) on an annual basis. On a month-over-month basis, online prices were down 0.6%.”

Persons: ” Joseph Brusuelas, ”, Steve Rick, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, “ Organizations: Economic, RSM US, Federal Reserve, TruStage, Labor Department, Adobe Analytics, “ Locations: U.S

The job market continues to confound the expectations of economists with 336,000 jobs added in September, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 3.8%. “We expect that this era of interest rate hikes is nearing its end, likely allowing the jobs market to level out. Thursday’s report on weekly unemployment claims came in largely in line with estimates and consistent with a steady labor market. “Labor market conditions have substantially normalized from their peak tightness in early 2022,” Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist, said ahead of the jobs report’s release.

Persons: ”, Steve Rick, ” Lydia Boussour, EY, Steven Kyle, Cornell University’s Charles H Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, TruStage, ADP, Labor, Cornell University’s, Dyson, Applied Economics, Management, United Auto Workers

☆ GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. economy showed few signs of recession in the second quarter, as gross domestic product grew at a faster-than-expected pace during the period, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Growth hasn't posted a negative reading since the second quarter of 2022, when GDP fell at a 0.6% rate. That was the second straight quarter of negative growth, meeting the technical definition of a recession. Following the Wednesday rate increase, the Fed characterized growth as "moderate," a slight boost from the characterization of "modest" in June. That phenomenon, called an inverted yield curve, has a near-perfect record for indicating a recession in the next 12 months.

Persons: Dow Jones, Steve Rick, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow, Commerce Department, Consumer, Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, of Michigan, Fed, Treasury, New Locations: Dow Jones, U.S, New York

☆ Instant View: Solid April US jobs report undermines case for Fed cut soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN“It's definitely telling you that the job market is still hot. PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK“It was a hotter than expected report, it certainly didn’t show any cooling in the labor market. Hourly earnings were a little higher than I was looking for.”“Bottom line, this is a strong report and shows that the labor market is resilient. So I think the real focus is on the inflation numbers, and what's happening with wage growth. We are hopeful the continued strength of the jobs market and signs of slowing inflation will ease market volatility in the coming months.

☆ Job growth totals 253,000 in April, beating expectations even as the U.S. economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 for the month, beating Wall Street estimates for growth of 180,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics . Job growth fared better than expected in April despite bank turmoil and a decelerating economy, the Labor Department reported Friday. Despite serious banking industry troubles, jobs in finance increased by 23,000. "It is encouraging to see a strong jobs report amid recession concerns, instability in the banking sector and ongoing layoffs," said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group. "We are hopeful the continued strength of the jobs market and signs of slowing inflation will ease market volatility in the coming months."

☆ Here's where the jobs are for February 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The leisure and hospitality sector added 105,000 jobs last month, according to the Labor Department, accounting for roughly a third of the total 311,000 jobs gain. The health care and social assistance segment was another large contributor, adding nearly 63,000 jobs. The 25,000-job decline in information technology shows the impact of layoffs at tech companies, while transportation and manufacturing jobs also retreated. Transportation and warehousing jobs are now down 42,000 since October, according to the Labor Department. "We're seeing a bifurcation of the economy between the goods and services sector," Rick said.

☆ Here’s where the jobs are for January 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in January, boosted by a jump in leisure and hospitality employment. The second-largest gain was in professional and business services employment, which climbed by 82,000. Government employment rose by 74,000 in January, led by state government education jobs (35,000), which reflected the return of university workers after a strike. Health care added 58,000 jobs in January, while employment in the retail trade rose by 30,000. "It is encouraging to see a strong jobs report amid recession concerns and continued layoffs in the tech industry," said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group.

☆ America’s dependence on credit cards is growing. The Fed’s rate hike will make it more painful
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Martha C. White | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —As prices continue to rise, Americans are becoming increasingly reliant on credit cards to make purchases. “The effect on existing credit card borrowers is probably actually worse,” he said, because of the rate hikes the Fed has undertaken already this year. Credit cards were a big cause of that: In the second quarter, 233 million new credit accounts were opened, the largest increase since 2008. Of the new debt that accumulated during that quarter, $46 billion was credit card debt. Credit bureau TransUnion found that there are more credit cards today, and there is more debt on those cards.

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